This invention relates to systems operative for purposes of providing information concerning the nature of the condition of equipment, and, more specifically, to a system which can be updated and wherein data pertaining to the projected performance and availability of equipment is crosslinked with data pertaining to the degradation of the equipment for purposes of providing a basis from which to appraise the future behavior of the equipment.
Whenever the acquisition of any equipment is being contemplated, be the equipment large or small in nature, there are a number of matters to which consideration must be given, if one is to ensure that the equipment which ultimately is acquired is the right equipment for the task sought to be accomplished thereby. To this end, there clearly exists a requirement to properly identify the particular needs for which the equipment is being sought. Likewise, there exists a requirement to properly identify the type of equipment which is best capable of satisfying the needs for which the equipment is being sought. This matching of equipment capability to the requirements of the task sought to be accomplished through the utilization of the equipment that is to be acquired obviously is of paramount importance.
Normally, however, one finds sufficient attention being given to this matter of matching equipment capability to the needs of the task that is to be accomplished through the use thereof, before the process of actually selecting the equipment to be acquired is completed. If anything, the party who is seeking to acquire the equipment will most often not only be in a position to identify the type of equipment that is being sought, but also will be able to identify the various companies that manufacture such equipment, before the actual selection is made of the equipment to be acquired. Rather, the party seeking to acquire the equipment is in a position of having to change the focus of his attention from that of a consideration of what he wants, i.e., which type of equipment, to that of a consideration of from whom, i.e., which company, should he acquire the equipment. In attempting, moreover, to reach a decision in this regard the party seeking to acquire the equipment will undoubtedly consider a number of things.
For example, the price quoted for the equipment by each of the various manufacturers thereof certainly would be an important consideration insofar as concerns selecting from whom to acquire the equipment. But price alone, particularly in the case of equipment that is relatively large in nature is not always the determining factor. Commonly, one finds that the larger the equipment, and in most cases concomitantly the more expensive the equipment the more important factors such as the projected performance and availability of the equipment become.
In most, if not all, instances, some measure of performance is established by equipment manufacturers for the equipment they supply. Moreover, depending on the specific nature of the equipment, the measure of performance to be expected from the equipment may be defined in any of a different number of ways. For instance, the measure of performance of the equipment may be defined in terms of the efficiency of the equipment, or in terms of the horsepower thereof, or in terms of the temperature and/or pressure at which the equipment can be operated, or in terms of the fuel consumption of the equipment, etc. Whatever measure of performance which the equipment manufacturer projects for the equipment though, one can be sure that the equipment as designed is capable of better performance than that being quoted by the equipment manufacturer for the equipment. As everyone knows the reason for this is that the equipment manufacturer simply understates the measure of performance of which the equipment is capable in order to avoid making claims for the equipment that might expose the equipment manufacturer to liability in the event that the equipment is incapable of providing the performance being claimed therefor by the equipment manufacturer.
With regard to equipment which is intended to be operated essentially continuously, the amount of time that this equipment will actually be available for use is often an important consideration. That is, at least insofar as some types of equipment are concerned, an important consideration which bears upon the question of from whom to acquire the equipment is that of the availability of the equipment as projected by the manufacturer thereof. For purposes of this discussion, availability is defined as being the ratio expressed in a percentage of the amount of time that it is projected that the equipment will be operational as compared to the total amount of time that it is desired to have the equipment be operational. Any number of things may give rise to the shutting down of the equipment such as the need to accomplish ordinary maintenance of the equipment, or because the equipment is in need of repair, etc. Whatever the reason for the shutdown of the equipment might be, however, equipment which is reputed to have a history of frequent shutdowns will normally be perceived as being at a disadvantage when compared to equipment which enjoys a reputation of being less prone to shutdowns, at least insofar as concerns the selection of which equipment to acquire other things being equal.
For purposes of establishing for a particular type of equipment the nature of the performance which one might expect to receive therefrom, equipment manufacturers will normally look at a number of things, which, at least, in their estimation are believed to bear on such a determination. By way of exemplification and not limitation, one base of reference, for instance, which equipment manufacturers will look at ordinarily in this context is that of the design data which may be applicable to this particular type of equipment. Another base of reference that the equipment manufacturers will commonly make use of, assuming that the particular type of equipment in question has been used previously for a statistically significant period of time so that such information is available, is that of how closely this particular type of equipment has in actuality lived up to the level of performance which had been projected therefor by the manufacturers thereof. With further regard to the matter of operational experience, the results thereof may, where applicable, be additionally broken down by the equipment manufacturers into categories according to the various kinds of applications in which the equipment has been utilized, and/or according to the major users thereof, etc. However, notwithstanding what base or bases of reference which an equipment manufacturer may make use of for purposes of establishing a projected performance for the equipment he manufactures, there is no way that the equipment manufacturer can establish with absolute certainty exactly what the future performance of his equipment will in actuality turn out to be.
What has been set forth above with regard to the establishment of performance levels for equipment essentially is equally applicable to the establishment of availability levels for equipment. That is, as in the case of the establishment of performance levels, equipment manufacturers when establishing availability levels for their equipment will ordinarily refer to the design data that is applicable to the particular type of equipment for which the availability levels are sought to be established. Likewise, the equipment manufacturers will in this regard commonly make use of any information relating to actual operating experience with the particular type of equipment, if meaningful information of this nature is available. Further, where applicable the information relating to the operational experience with the equipment often will be categorized according to the different kinds of applications in which this particular type of equipment has been utilized, and/or according to the experiences which each of the major users of the equipment have had when the equipment has been employed thereby. Here also, however, the equipment manufacturers are unable to state with absolute certainty what the availability level for this equipment will in actual reality ultimately prove to be when the equipment is placed in operation.
With every passing day, one finds more and more attention being focused by users as well as manufacturers of equipment, and in particular users and manufacturers of larger equipment, on ways in which the useful life of equipment can be extended. More specifically, the focus of this attention is directed towards the optimization of equipment performance and availability up to and beyond the design life of the equipment. Moreover, making the best decisions to attain the goal of achieving life extension of equipment consistent with the needs of the user of the equipment and the financial constraints under which such users of equipment of necessity must operate is acknowledged to be a difficult process. On the other hand, it is also acknowledged that the benefits to the users of the equipment which would flow thereto from the successful attainment thereby of this goal of life extension of equipment would be well worth the efforts that might be required to be expended in the course of pursuing such a goal.
By way of exemplification and not limitation, the successful attainment of such a goal of life extension of equipment will result in making available information relating to such equipment that can be put to a variety of different uses. For instance, as regards particularly equipment that has been operational for some time, information will be available relating to the so-called "aging" of the equipment and/or the various components which are to be found embodied in the equipment. Such information relating to the aging of the components of which the equipment is composed is critical to a life extension determination of the current remaining life status of not only the individual component itself but also of the equipment of which the individual component forms a part. As such, information of this nature relating to the aging of the equipment and/or the individual components thereof can be utilized for purposes of preparing prioritized inspection and test plans for those components of the equipment which are inspectable, as well as for purposes of assessing the remaining life status of those components which for whatever reason may not be capable of being inspected.
Secondly, information that is derived from the successful accomplishment of the goal of life extension of equipment can be utilized for purposes of comparing predicted equipment performance and availability with actual performance and availability characteristics for the equipment. As used herein, the term performance characteristics is intended to encompass such things as thermo-hydraulic parameters, etc. The term availability characteristics is intended to encompass such things as availability, capacity factors, repair man-hours, etc.
Thirdly, based on the successful realization of the goal of life extension of equipment, information will exist relating to the degradation that has been experienced by the equipment and/or the individual components of which the equipment is composed. Moreover, information of this nature can be utilized for purposes of planning future operations and repair/replace/refurbish strategies insofar as the equipment is concerned. In turn, there then exists the capability of assessing the impact which the strategies will have on the performance and availability of the equipment as well as on the cost associated with the operation thereof.
Fourthly, with the information in hand that is available as a consequence of having successfully attained the aforereferenced goal of life extension of equipment, there will exist a capability of assessing future requirements for equipment outage activities occasioned by the implementation of a program of life extension of equipment. In addition, an assessment can then also be made therefrom as to major spare part inventory needs, and the number of repair man-hours that may be required consistent with the implementation of planned future operating strategies. Finally, such information will also be useful in evaluating financial allocation needs for purposes of distributing the cost arising from the implementation of the life extension program over the period of time for which the life of the equipment will be extended.
Fifthly, the information derived from the successful realization of the goal of life extension of equipment will also be found to have use in effecting an evaluation of the problems and/or solutions to those problems which have extended effects and/or which may span the interface that exists between the equipment in question and other equipment.
A need has thus been evidenced in the prior art for a new and improved system suitable for use for purposes of effectuating an appraisal of the future behavior of equipment. More specifically, a need has thus been evidenced for such a system which could be employed for purposes of evaluating future extended life equipment behavior as a function of hypothetically postulated repair/replace/refurbish options, and wherein the basis of the evaluation can be either cost/benefit or risk of unavailability, or both. In addition, such a system desirably should be capable of being interfaced with other systems that are being utilized to effect an assessment of the future extension life behavior of other equipment. Moreover, such a system desirably should be further characterized by the fact that the equipment is subject to consideration both from a generic and a specific standpoint, and wherein the foundation from which this consideration is made is capable of being updated so as to reflect additional operating experience with the equipment.
It is, therefore, an object of the present invention to provide a new and improved system suitable for use for purposes of effectuating an appraisal of the future behavior of equipment.
It is another object of the present invention to provide such a future behavior equipment predictive system which is characterized in that in the case of equipment that has been operational for some time a determination can be had therewith of the current remaining life status of the equipment.
It is still another object of the present invention to provide such a future behavior equipment predictive system which is characterized in that a comparison can be had therewith between the predictive performance and availability characteristics of the equipment and the actual performance and availability characteristics of the equipment.
A further object of the present invention is to provide such a future behavior equipment predictive system which is characterized in that projections can be had therewith as to the degradation of the equipment for purposes of planning future operating and/or repair/replace/refurbish strategies.
A still further object of the present invention is to provide such a future behavior equipment predictive system which is characterized in that consistent with plans for the future operation of the equipment predictions can be had therewith as to what should be required in terms of time, effort and resources to support such plans for the future operation of the equipment.
Yet another object of the present invention is to provide such a future behavior equipment predictive system which is characterized in that usage can be made thereof in the evaluation of problems or solutions which have extended effects and span the interfaces between the equipment in question and other equipment.
Yet still another object of the present invention is to provide such a future behavior equipment predictive system which is characterized in that the system can either be employed with new equipment or be retrofitted to equipment that has already been placed in operation.